Overconfidence

This week's topic is overconfidence - an affliction that has visited us all probably more than once in our lifetimes. It is simply a case of unwarranted arrogance and the result of the affliction can be minimal or catastrophic. The course of history has been changed many times because of the overconfidence of players in the game of life. Imagine the difference if Nazi Germany had not underestimated the resolve of Russia in World War II, or the USA had not underestimated the  resolve of North Vietnam during the Vietnam War. What if Hillary Clinton and her team had not been plagued with a severe case of unwarranted arrogance in the 2016 presidential election. How different would our lives have been had the master of disaster not  prevailed in that election?

On a smaller scale, what if I had not been overconfident in a baseball championship game I participated in and lost in spite of pitching a no hitter? What if I had not tried  for a long ball on my last at bat when the left fielder played left field about 400-ft. deep  thereby making the result of my at bat a long out rather than a base hit that would have tied the game?
 We face events daily - some major, most minor when our level of confidence is often the primary factor in the outcome of the event. Did you ever get a speeding ticket because the traffic light turned yellow and you lead-footed through the intersection or how about that infamous Hollywood stop you made at a stop sign and were ticketed? Did you ever take a midterm exam in school, confident you were perfectly prepared and were lucky to get a C in place of the expected A? I had a few of those.

Interestingly enough, we exist in a world where success can be counted upon 30% of the time, for example, when batting in baseball and rather than being considered average a batting average of 300 (30% successful)guarantees a MLB player what I call stupid money. Stupid money is multiple millions of dollars to place baseball for a season? Or football, basketball or hockey?  Truth is, while the average MLB salary in 2018 was over 4 million dollars a year, the minimum salary was a mere $545,000.00, some players made much more, with Mike Trout earning a lofty 35.54 million per year on his 12-year contract.  That, dear reader, is the epitome  of stupid money. Alas,in our capitalist society we are often offered salaries that the market will bear. Basketball and football offer vastly different salary ranges with spreads into the stupid money ranges. Even the NHL offers stupid money, and they manage without the benefit of large television contracts - their salaries are largely the result of paid attendance at games.

Confidence and over confidence - yin and yang. A balancing act if you will. We juggle them all the time. Both play large parts in our successes and failures. Nothing replaces preparation but confidence and overconfidence can defeat even the most adequate preparation. Take a look at this Wikipedia article -Biggest Box Office Bombs.

My favorite example of overconfidence comes from the annals of Olympic Hockey when in 1980 the USA collection of college kids defeated the best hockey team in the world at the time - the USSR in the game called The Miracle on Ice. Sports have been called the opiates of the masses but in 1980 a hockey game made an entire nation feel better about itself when we defeated the USSR 4-3.

And yes Al  - I believed in miracles. My favorite story came from a USAF pilot who was flying his mission and a Soviet interceptor flew up next to him, wagged his wings and saluted the American pilot.

There are numerous examples of overconfidence in life - be sure to check the other members of the 5 on 1 team and see what they have to say -   Ramana, Padmum, Sanjana & Conrad